05.26.08
嘲笑世界最强大国家的近视外交。。。
今天，美国的确还是世界上最强大的国家。没有其国家或联合能“单方面”（unilaterally）宣战，等等。可惜真的少数美国公民花什么时间在了解美国以外的事。。。这个问题不是新的，也不单是美国的问题，就是美国权利那么大，所以责任也更大。如果美国要继续保持超级大国身份，必须让人民更国际化。
有一些地图嘲笑普遍美国人民的地理概念。同时，这群体的税费睡支持情报局和军部干扰射界各地。
05.08.08
American’s and their Real-Estate market…
Interesting piece in the Economist: American housing - Map of misery. Can’t say I care too much, but it does define the relationships between rents and mortgages in more eloquent economic terms that I have 
A better measure of housing fundamentals is the relationship between house prices and rents. This is a sort of price/earnings ratio for the housing market: the price of a house reflects the discounted value of future ownership, either as rental income or as rent saved by an owner who lives in the house.
—Chinese Version—
衡量关于房地产的基础经济情况：房价和租金的关系。你可以理解这个比例有点像股票的市盈率：一套房子所有权的价格表示贴现值的未来所有权。这个所有权代表房子可以赚的租金或者这个房东可以节约的房租。
当然，你还要考虑：
－利息的比例
－通货膨胀的比例
－其他的因素但是可以用这个比例来判断这段时间是否适合买房。
And in case you were curious about that map…
UPDATED: 2008/05/15 - Added Chinese Translation and Considerations…
03.31.08
Dialing Int’l Calls from Shanghai ～ 0.4元/分钟
Call direct from your mobile phone. No calling card. Only 2x the price of Skype In, but better quality and you can call out!
在上海，申请中国移动的国际长途就发“3211”到10086。这样可以申请国际IP长途服务，每次拨国际电话号码，先拨：12593＋00＋国际电话号码，比如：
拨美国的“＋1－206－555－1212”，变成：
12593－00－1－206－555－1212
Give China Mobile a call and Sign-up for IP Int’l Long Distance. Just send an SMS containing only “3211″ to 10086. Each time you want to dial an Int’l number, just add: 1259-00, then the country code and the number.
如果你忘记你的密码，就发密码查询的拼音到10086，那就是：MMCX
If you forget your password, just send MMCX to 10086
如果要查你的账户还有多少钱，发“余额查询”的拼音到10086，那就是：YECX
If you need you current account balance, send YECX to 10086
03.30.08
Get Out of Commodities - Barron’s
Quote Seeking Alpha / Barron’s
Commodity bull Jim Rogers notes that there are about 70,000 mutual funds in the world, and only about 50 that invest in commodities. He thinks the speculative bubble has a few years to go. But looking at the ’smart money’ — farmers and others who actually trade in and use the physical commodities — tells a different story. Net commercial shorts are 30% higher than a previous record.
Factors that could burst the bubble:
- Even the slightest hint of a China slowdown (much of the bullish outlook is due to the perception of an ‘insatiable’ China).
- A U.S. recession.
- A stronger dollar (commodities are dollar-denominated).
- A stronger stock market, leading people to put money back into stocks. (Or, conversely, a weaker market that sees traders liquidating commodity longs to meet margin calls. Barron’s doesn’t mention this, but it got some mileage when gold and oil dived suddenly a couple weeks ago.)
- The CFTC changing its exemption of position limits on index funds.
Personally, my money’s on Jim Rogers, but we’ll see
03.24.08
Countdown to Meltdown…
Had coffee last week with a reporter from The Atlantic, James Fallows. Just saw an excellent story he put together called “Countdown to a Meltdown”:
America’s coming economic crisis. A look back from the election of 2016
Countdown to a Meltdown
January 20, 2016, Master Strategy Memo
Subject: The Coming Year—and Beyond
It’s an excellent read. Check it out.
There’s also a great article called “Win the peace” with a speech from Thomas PM Barnett at the TedTalks. Watch it.
